Tuesday, September 06, 2005

OCA (3)

Question: OCA to turn around?
by: emilyqtang 08/29/05 01:47 pm
Msg: 37426 of 37781

How big the chance is? Chfriend03?

It seems that you are pretty positive. Do you have shares? Or just watch & post for fun?

Response

I got quite some shares but I would not put more than 10-20% of my cash in this stock, just in case. If I lose, then it will just take a big chunk of the growth out of my porfolio (whose growth since December 1st 2004 is 30% largely thanks to UHAL), and I will still end up with 10+% growth for the year.

I think there is some good chance that OCA would survive the liquidity crisis. The CEO seeems to be fighting against dilution by putting $3 million of his own money. He owns about 3 million shares of OCA.

In fact, instead of putting his own money into the stock, he could have asked all shareholders to put up some money into the company. OCA can issue stock warrants to shareholders (1 stock warrant for every share) to buy its shares at say $1 per share (or like).

Its stock price will rise instantly to a more reasonable level if this is done, as investors will no longer fear the liquidity problem.

I believe the stock as of today is worth about $6 (or a little more). After warrants excercise, every two shares would be worth $6+$1. That is, every share would be worth $3.5.

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